CAN WE HAVE ANOTHER?
A little change in the wind can make a big difference in the sensible weather, and that was certainly the case Wednesday. With a brisk NW wind, not only did we cut temperatures, we scoured out the oppressive levels of humidity. Dew points, which were in the mid and upper 70s the previous day, were back in the 50s to low 60s in all but the far SE. Here's the 24-hour change, which in Cedar Rapids amounted 24 degrees (78 to 54). What a refreshing difference!
With the dry air it was also a rare quiet day Wednesday with the evening radar showing rain free weather across the majority of the Midwest. A tough trick to accomplish the past 3 months!
The high pressure ridge associated with the comfortable change is moving steadily east. Late Thursday, return flow develops ahead of our next disturbance. We'll still be close enough to the ridge to keep humidity levels comfortable and temperatures even a few degrees lower. Highs will end up in the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south. Clouds will be on the increase in the afternoon as warm advection approaches from the west. All things considered, another pleasant early summer day is a certainty before rain returns Friday.
Speaking of rain, something we've been "speaking" of frequently since spring, the period April 30th to June 26th ranks in the top 5 wettest over much of the upper Midwest. In fact, from NW Iowa to SW Minnesota, the 56-day stretch is the all-time wettest in 132 years of reliable records.
Due to the extensive nature of the wet conditions, widespread flooding is noted on many Midwest rivers and streams. The National Water Prediction Service shows river gauges and the degree of current flooding by color.
Below, you can see why flooding is so prominent in NW Iowa and SW Minnesota. 4-12+ inches of rain has fallen in that region in the past week. Soggy times with some all-time record river crests in rivers up that way.
One of the driving forces in the massive rain numbers are thunderstorms. They have been heavily focused within a tropical moisture plume situated around a potent heat dome over the EC United States. Not only have the storms brought torrential rains, they have produced significant severe weather. In my area, severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings at the NWS office in Davenport are far ahead of any year since 1986. There's still a long way to go too.
That brings us to our next threat of storms and rain. In keeping with my thoughts from yesterday, the initial warm advection wave of rain will run into plenty of dry air Friday morning, which means showers and storms that thrive further west will be in a weakening stage when they arrive around daybreak. Still, some scattered rain is anticipated, mainly Friday morning. Recent trends indicate far lighter amounts than 24 hours ago. Additionally, substantial cloud cover is anticipated, which means the idea of a rather cool day in the 70s still holds merit.
Late Friday, deeper moisture arrives, which may lead to an uptick in showers and storms. However, the lack of heating leads to minimal CAPE (instability) which lowers the threat of strong storms and heavy rains Friday night. This is a good thing considering the state of area rivers. Anyway, SPC does show a level 2 risk of severe weather for much of the region, but I think this is optimistic, and I think there is a good chance SPC will lower the threat and push it southwest. Here's what's shown for now.
As for rain, the numbers have come down significantly from yesterday, and I think modeling finally has the right idea in this regard. This is what guidance is suggesting.
The EURO
The GFS
The NAM
Friday night's forcing (in the form of a cold front) shifts east of the region, allowing any lingering showers to move out very early Saturday. Sunshine follows, and a warm day ensues with highs in the mid 80s. Saturday night, a much stronger push of cool dry air is expected. No rain is anticipated with its arrival, but it will provide us with a sensational day of weather Sunday with highs cooling into the range of 75-80. Very low humidity as well. Monday should be another great day as well before our next rain chance Tuesday.
Now, to something I was not expecting. Last night I showed you the EURO EPS control indicating a strong heat dome building back into the Midwest July 9th.
It was to deliver highs near 100+ the 9th.
Today, the model did a complete 180 showing a sharp trough instead of a ridge.
That's a complete reversal, and what a difference that would make. Highs are shown in the upper 70s to low 80s instead of 100-106. Hopefully, this new idea holds, and we avoid what could have been some searing heat! We'll see if the trend remains in tact tomorrow.
On that very promising note, I will call it a post. Have a solid Thursday and roll weather....TS
SEE WHAT YOU ARE MISSING. MY AIRBNB IS A GUEST FAVORITE!
AIRBNB has rated my renovated church in Galena A GUEST FAVORITE, A MOST LOVED home according to visitors. Check out some of our reviews and get in on the flexible deals we have available below.
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Brent
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Leigh
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Kelly
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MAKE US AN OFFER...
What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Let us assist in finding a time and price that works for you. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb
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Now that it's vacation season, there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.
Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5-star AIRBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.
Again, we are an AIRBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!
Hope to see you soon,
Terry and Carolyn
7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA
1. It’s Steeped In History
2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America
3. The Restaurants Are Amazing
4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors
5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing
6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July
7. Did I Mention The Shopping?
