BY THE CHINNY CHIN CHIN

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Due to the logistics of distance, work, and availability, today is another Christmas at the Swails residence. Believe it or not, it took this long to get my daughter and her boyfriend in the loop to exchange gifts. (Better late than never). Anyway, I can hear the party has begun upstairs, so I'm under orders to get this "wrapped" up. Happy holiday's from my place to yours!

The sun was out Friday and that's given us an interesting satellite perspective. The image below, taken from 22,000 feet, was shot with fair skies over the region. Thus, what you are seeing is the snow that fell in Thursday's clipper. The image is so crisp that you can even see the river valleys over eastern Iowa and western Illinois. You can also note the sharp cut-off to the northern edge of the snow close to HWY 30. Technology!

Here's the snow totals reported following the quick hitting snow event.

BY THE HAIR OF MY CHINNY CHIN CHIN

By now, most of you have heard about a major winter storm that is expected to hit parts of the central Midwest Sunday. My contention has been that outside of my far southern 2 tiers of counties, especially south of HWY 34, this is largely going to be a miss, and just by the hair of our chinny chin chin.

Since my last post, there continues to be critical spread in guidance regarding where the northern extent of the significant snow lays out. Just 24 hours before the event, models are still showing important variability in amounts over the far south and whether the snow gets north of HWY 34. The EURO says no, and the GFS says yes. I'm still of the mind set that a stout high pressure will deliver enough cold dry air to keep the system on a track that produces any accumulating snow near and south of HWY 34, and little if anything north of there. In fact, I see nothing at all near and north of I-80 north.

The EURO ensemble has been staunch and consistent, showing the surface low drifting SE into Kentucky. Today it's now focused on a track that takes it into WC Tennessee. The GFS is similar in both track and intensity, yet it keeps holding heavier snow in my far southern counties while the EURO keeps inching it south. The GFS just does not make sense to me given the amount of dry air being drawn into the system. Thus, I'm heavily leaning on the EURO and its solution of a more manageable snow of 2–4 inches (perhaps 5") in extreme SE Iowa and WC Illinois, mainly south of HWY 34.

The GFS is similar in both track and intensity, yet it keeps holding heavier snow in my far southern counties while the EURO keeps inching it south. The GFS just does not make sense to me given the amount of dry air being drawn into the system. Thus, I'm leaning heavily on the EURO and its less snowy solution this far north.

Here's what the EURO depicts for snow totals. Its highest amount in my area is 4.1" in Keokuk, with perhaps 1-2" amounts as far north as a line that arcs from Ottumwa to Burlington and on to Macomb. North of that, amounts dwindle to a trace or less from I-80 north. That's the scenario that makes most sense to me.

The GFS on the other hand, has 2 inches to I-80 with a sharp cut-off northward after that. It buries Burlington with with 9.4" while the EURO shows 1.6". It's got widespread amounts in the heavy snow band from Missouri to Illinois of 20-24". That's far more than the EURO does in its maximum snow band. That's fishy.

The NWS feels the GFS has enough merit to put out a Winter Storm Watch for the counties along and south of HWY 34 Sunday through Sunday night for 4-10" of snow, the heaviest near and south of the Missouri border. In the end, I suspect winter weather advisories will end up being issued from roughly HWY 34 south, unless you are in the zone from Ft. Madison south. There, a winter storm warning is still a possibility, especially around Keokuk.

Further south, closer to the storm track, a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for roughly 10–16 inches of snow north of a line from Kansas City to Columbia and St. Louis. For sure, it will be rough down that way Sunday into Monday.

In fact, the winter storm severity index for that area shows major impacts, including considerable disruptions to daily life and the possibility of widespread closures and disruptions to infrastructure.

This is a regional perspective of what the NWS is predicting for expected snowfall amounts.

Since the storm does not get underway until late Saturday night in the far SW, there is still time for some minor alterations to track and eventual snow amounts. If you have to travel south, keep abreast of the forecast, as travel will become difficult Sunday and could be very tough in northern Missouri and parts of central Illinois.

Cold air will follow the storm, with temperature departures the next 7 days well below normal over all the central United States. Looks like January!

Time to join the belated Christmas party. Hope I got some warm socks. Roll weather...TS