BUILDING UP SOME STEAM

A weak disturbance tried to bring some showers into the north Tuesday afternoon, but in most places failed as the disturbance outran its upper air support. Clouds and sprinkles prevailed until skies cleared late in the day, resulting in a beautiful late spring evening.

Wednesday promises to be a rather toasty day, as sunshine looks abundant through late afternoon. That should allow plenty of heating, with the powerful June sun sending highs into the upper 80s to perhaps low 90s in the south. Moisture will also be slowly on the increase, with dew points reaching 60-65 by evening. That provides enough steam for some respectable CAPE (instability) for thunderstorms. The issue is forcing. That is very much lacking during the day, keeping most spots dry but rather steamy. At 7:00 the simulated radar off the HRRR only shows a few widely scattered storms in the far north.

The best moisture convergence and instability is situated in Minnesota, and a more significant cluster of storms is likely to take root there and then move southeast. As this occurs during the overnight, the storms are expected to weaken after sunset and may fall apart completely before they reach my southern counties. There is much model disagreement on where the cluster tracks and how far SE it gets. The GFS is an outlier, developing an intense MCS that just grazes my NE counties, staying mainly in far NE Iowa and Wisconsin. If correct, it would produce some severe weather there along with some very heavy rains. Other models do not show that scenario and are far more tame. For now, I'm discounting the potent GFS solution. Here's what models suggest for rainfall Wednesday night, starting with the overzealous GFS.

The GFS

The EURO

The HRRR

The 3K NAM

Thursday, the outflow from what storms do form Wednesday night will help to enhance a cool front that slowly works its way SE. Much of the day, the atmosphere looks capped, allowing temperatures and humidity to climb. Highs in the upper 80s north to the mid 90s south are expected.

Dew points just ahead of the front hit 72-74 on the HRRR. That could get the heat index close to 100 for a time in the far south.

Instability in the form of CAPE is very robust and thunderstorms that develop towards evening could quickly become strong and deposit some torrential rains. Especially just SE of the Quad Cities. The timing of the frontal passage will be critical as to where storms develop. A slightly slower passage favors coverage further north, a little faster and only the far south gets in on the action.

SPC shows a slight severe weather risk outlook over the south, which for now seems reasonable.

Behind the front, somewhat cooler and drier air filters in for Friday and Saturday. That should mean dry weather both days, with highs in the range of 80 north to 85 south. Pretty close to normal.

Sunday through Wednesday is looks as if heat and humidity will make a rapid return, resulting in highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s far south. Muggy conditions are also on the table. Overall, thunderstorm potential looks most likely Sunday night and again Wednesday with the approach of another front. Otherwise, mostly sunny, muggy conditions prevail.

Finally, some real deal summer conditions are on the board. It was bound to happen. Roll weather...TS

A PERSONAL INVITATION...

It's vacation season and there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated ARBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the top place to visit in the entire Midwest.

Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5 star ARBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.

We are an ARBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!

What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees that the chains charge and get minimal cleaning fees. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb

Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320.

Hope to see you soon,

Terry and Carolyn

7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA

1. It’s Steeped In History

2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America

3. The Restaurants Are Amazing

4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors

5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

7. Did I Mention The Shopping?