BRINGING HOME THE BACON

The Arctic front which brought us a good taste of what January is all about is moving on. The high winds and sub-zero wind chills to 10 below, will be absent from the scene this weekend. It brings us a good chance Sunday of seeing the highest temperatures in nearly 2 weeks. That's what I call bringing home the bacon!

That said, the recent cold snap has been an eye-opener in a fall filled with pleasant temperatures until this. Here are the departures over the last week (7-days). Most of my area has been running 13–16 degrees below normal.

With the cold came a dominant NW flow, lacking moisture. As a result, weak clippers were all we had to rely on as precipitation producers. They failed us miserably with 14 day amounts that look like this.

If you are curious, for the majority of my region, that's only 2 to 6 percent of what typically falls during that period. Boring!

In that 2 week stretch, precipitation departures up to an inch were compiled. So, after starting November on a very wet note with 4–6 inches of rain area wide, we've turned bone dry again. What a weird fall.

With the recent onset of cold temperatures, a little bit of snow worked its way into the picture. Little being the operative word, with this week's snow less than 1/2 inch, outside some 1 inch totals in SE Iowa and WC Illinois.

Here are the seasonal snow totals since October 1st. Outside the lake effect belts, it's been a lame snow year over the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. What's new?

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BRINGING HOME THE BACON

This weekend, the jet stream makes the friendly move to a westerly (zonal) flow. That cuts the connection to Polar air masses until our next front arrives late Monday.

With Pacific air getting back in the mix, look for highs to crack freezing Friday and then really tick up the remainder of the weekend. Highs Saturday should reach 45-50 and Sunday 48-53 from north to south. Sunshine and dry conditions will lead the way. Those temperatures will be about 8–13 degrees above normal.

Monday remains in the 40s, but late in the day we undergo another plunge with a deep full-latitude trough carved out over the Midwest. Its evolution is not conducive to precipitation, but it does open the door to another 2 days of much colder temperatures.

The departures expected next Wednesday, December, 11th.

A few snow showers may accompany the cold midweek, but nothing more than a dusting is currently advertised.

After this final dump of cold air, the MJO makes its move into phase 6. Here's the projected daily cycle, with the GEFS shown advancing through phase 5 on the way to 6 around the 15th.

Phase 6 in December favors a western trough with a strong push of mild air out ahead of it in the central U.S.

The 500mb jet on the GFS fits the analog to a T December 15th

Here are the temperature and precipitation correlations of Phase 6 in December.

Once again, the GFS temperature departures December 15th mirror the Phase 6 look. Mid-December should be significantly warmer than the first 14 days of the month.

Even the precipitation pattern fits phase 6 with the bulk of it off to the southeast.

Needless to say, this is a lousy pattern for snow and most likely will be up to Christmas. Still hoping for that long shot snowstorm, but right now it is far from evident. Keep the faith! Meantime, I'm bringing home the bacon this weekend and eating it, too. Roll weather...TS