BLACK FRIDAY FREEZE OUT
Another Thanksgiving has come and gone. Here's hoping yours was as good as mine. I was at my sisters in northeast Iowa and coming home the car temperature said 24, (conveniently not posting the wind chill which was far worse in the low-teens). I also noted the clouds, (spitting a few snowflakes), were racing southeast, caught up in the NW winds which were gusting to 30. I remember thinking to myself, "yup, this is what winter looks and feels like". The long slog to spring is underway.
Despite a few flurries, precipitation around much of the nation was uneventful Thursday. The radar Thanksgiving night depicts scattered snow showers over the Lakes, some rain and snow in northern New England, and dry weather encompassing the rest of the country. From the western Iowa border to the Pacific Ocean, it's as quiet as it can get.
The surface map shows how high pressure building SE from Canada is dominating the overall weather pattern. The packed isobars are also a good indicator that brisk NW winds will keep things cold and highly refreshed into much of next week.
Here's the 500mb jet stream representation on the EURO Wednesday of next week. You can't help but see the NW flow that divides the nation.
Unfortunately, we are on the cold side of it and will be for the first week of December. These are the average 10-day temperature departures as shown by the EURO through December 8th.
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NW flow is also known to be dry, with moisture availability severely restricted. These are the 10-day precipitation departures for the period ending December 8th. Outside south Texas and the lake snow belts, much of the nation is high and dry and well below normal on amounts.
About the only way to get precipitation out of a pattern such as this is to get in the way of a clipper. Small ripples of energy occasionally follow the baroclinic boundary draped out from Montana into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. They race southeast, are moisture starved, and narrow. An inch or two can fall in a short window, but again the narrow width makes it hard to get in the optimal spot. Aside from a few flurries, the general idea is my area avoids the clipper threat through at least Thursday with one going south and a couple north. There is a chance one could catch the north late next week, but it's really too early to make a call on that. Here's what models are suggesting for snow through next Friday. A dismall outlook from my perspective.
The EURO
The GFS
As far as temperatures go, it looks as if highs will remain in the range of 23-28 north and 26-21 south through Monday, (potentially Tuesday as well). Look at these wind chills Monday morning. Deep in the single digits.
They will remain impactful through the weekend, and we may never get them higher than 10 during the day, both Friday and Saturday. Black Friday shoppers, dress accordingly. The GFS meteogram shows this for temperatures through December 14th when the cold pattern should begin to break.
Well that's all for now, just brought the dog in with a wind chill of 6. He completed his business in short order. A fitting end to a nice Thanksgiving for me. Have a terrific day and roll weather....TS
