BIG WINDS, STORM NEXT WEEK?
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HOLD ONTO YOUR HAT....
Thursday was a blustery day around the region, with wind gusts of 30-35 mph common. Cedar Rapids reported a gust to 43! That will be chump change today, as sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph are likely, with gusts pushing 50. The winds will be tied to rapidly rising pressures behind a clipper powering through the northern Great Lakes. A wind advisory is flying for areas north of I-80.
Another potential issue Friday will be wildfires. The strong winds, combined with dry conditions, dead vegetation, and warm temperatures, will bring a very high risk of fires spreading out of control on Friday. As a result, a red flag warning has been issued. Consider delaying any burning tomorrow and use caution if using heavy machinery.
The SW half of my region is most at risk for wildfires. Plenty of dry vegetation, prolonged dry weather, low humidity, and high winds are prime conditions for rapidly developing fires that spread rapidly. Avoid burning Friday!
With strong cold advection in place, gusty NW winds will continue Friday night and Saturday morning before quickly tapering off by Saturday evening. After highs Friday of 55-60, significantly cooler conditions are expected over the weekend. Highs Saturday will hold in the low to mid 30s, reaching the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday. Dry weather will rule.
Speaking of dry weather (something I've already touched on several times in this post), Dubuque will end the month of February with a precipitation total of .49 inches. That comes on the heels of the driest January on record, with a total of .10 inches. Measurable precipitation has fallen on just 8 of the 59 days this year, with the largest one day total .30 inches. Throw that out and the two-month total would be .29 inches. We all could use a good soaker or two to get some moisture into the ground, with the growing season not all that far away.
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A ROBUST MARCH STORM?
That brings me to a robust March storm that has eyes on some part of the Midwest next week. Preceding it, a round of showers, possibly mixed with a bit of snow up north, is shown crossing the region Monday. Of far more interest is the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame when this bowling ball kicks out of the southern Plains. That's a bundle of energy.
There are some tricky elements of this storm that remain unknown at this time. That continues to lead to a low confidence forecast until these issues are resolved.
Phasing
Track and intensity
Location of the precipitation shield
Thermal profiles
Phasing is a known issue when it comes to storms ejecting from the SW. Determining the interaction of the northern and southern stream of the jet is essential to get an accurate assessment of what the system will look like. The northern (polar) branch typically adds cold air when it gets involved and mixes with the warmth and moisture contained in the southern (sub-tropical jet). When these two really get after it, we see some of our strongest storms. Since cold air is lacking initially, how much cold can phase with the moisture and energy to the south will determine the intensity and the track.
Knowing the intensity and track should solve the issue of where the precipitation shield becomes a factor and where the heaviest band sets up. That may still be a couple of days away.
Then there's the issue of thermal profiles. Initially, there is not enough cold air for any snow, with 850 temperatures well above freezing at the onset of precipitation. However, if the phasing is sufficient, strong vertical velocities will lead to evaporative cooling that ingests enough cold air to cool the column NW of the low, converting rain to snow and potentially producing a burst of heavy wet snow. Knowing when the transition occurs is immensely important. The sooner it goes over, the better the chances of accumulations. It's often a bit of a wild card to find that line and the magic moment it happens.
What we do know is recent trends have shown a shift on the track further east. We are still early enough into the development stages that ensembles are what I'm using to figure out the most likely track and intensity based on what data is available. There's not much doubt this should be a significant storm, with a surface low of 982-988 millibars. Here are the ensembles of the EURO. What you are seeing are where various members, using slightly different inputs, are projecting the locations of the primary surface low (as well as its intensity). The most clustered members Tuesday night are over EC Missouri with outliers surrounding them.
The GFS is in good agreement and even deeper with one member at 979mb.
What you are looking at here are 25 of the 50 EURO ensemble precipitation ensembles. If you pick a location like Iowa and observe all the solutions, you will see some have heavy precipitation in Iowa and others, not so much. Ideally, you would like to see every panel looking alike (especially like number 09) with my area getting plastered. What's evident is that the model still sees quite a bit of noise and is unsure what solution to jump on. The next couple of days this should begin to tighten up considerably as clustering improves.
Getting back to the latest ensembles, the EURO remains fairly consistent, with a track just SE of Chicago. The GFS has shifted significantly east from a track near the Quad Cities yesterday to one that now puts it on par with the EURO.
What does that look like in terms of sensible weather? This is what the EURO and GFS show for total precipitation.
The EURO
The GFS
Also, with this track further southeast, both the EURO and GFS show enough dynamic cooling for a change of rain to snow before precipitation ends. However, due to differences in individual ensemble members, amounts are not overly impressive due to smoothing or averaging. That could change in time as mesoscale features become clearer.
The EURO
The GFS
The deterministic run of the EURO looks like this for precipitation types by Wednesday morning. Note the band of snow it shows cutting through my area.
In summation, what we have here is the early genesis of a storm that will impact the Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday. It's going to happen, but the details are still in flux. The track could still shift west or east. A further SE movement would be a detriment to precipitation chances in the NW half of my area. That's been a common denominator in storms this winter, and I sure can't discount that concerning trend, (I don't want to see a nothingburger). A shift further NW would mean less cooling and likely little in the way of snow. I'm hoping things hold tight for now, and we keep the track just SE of Chicago. For the time being we're in the game, hopefully we remain there in future runs. Stand by, it's still a bit early. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
