BETTER SNOW NUMBERS
A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS
Hey friends and fellow weatherheads, I'm asking for your help to raise funds for the time I invest in this site and its operational costs. So far it's been a struggle and donations are 50 percent less than at this point last year. I realize times are tough, and we are all feeling the pinch. That's a big reason why this is a no pay site. Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. That way, we can keep things rolling as they have for more than 12 years. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. So again, if you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation to support TSwails today. Thanks for your time and loyalty, TS
NEW DAY, NEW TRENDS...
In the weather game, all you can do is stay up to date with the trends. New data means alterations, sometimes nothing more than a tweak, others, well let's just say, you start over! A shift in the storm track can be a nightmare of immense proportions. After some wild fluctuations yesterday, models have leveled off some today regarding cold and snow next week. Teleconnections have remained far more consistent with the only bugaboo the slightly positive phase of the EPO. What's showing still threatens a wintry period ahead but the positive EPO may keep the cold from reaching the extreme stage it was shown a few days ago. (Maybe).
What I was excited about today was the ensembles of the EURO and GFS painting a more aggressive look for snow potential next week, but not until after the 12th on the EURO and 14th on the GFS. Here's the latest numbers. Remember, ensembles have many members, each with somewhat different input. Some may show 20 inches and others 1 or 2. In the end, the data is averaged or smoothed and this is what you get.
The EURO ensemble. (Out to the 20th)
The GFS ensemble (Out to the 21st)
The operational runs, focused on one single run are more localized and specific. That does not mean they are better, especially since the snow is about a week away. The amounts are not to be trusted, but are valuable for setting trends. You will notice a difference, especially considering snow ratios are considered that will be higher than the 10:1 ratio of the ensembles.
The EURO
The GFS
There is still quite a bit of noise in the models and amounts will bounce around, but hopefully this is the beginning of more consistent solutions. Please be the case.
I will also throw this out, it's the temperature departures on the operational GFS the morning of the 20th. 2 runs ago, the model had given up on bitter cold like this. I consider it a sure sign that conceptually models are still trying to put the picture together. In other words, there are a few pieces of the puzzle still missing.
Anyway, that is the latest on the great saga of next week. Roll weather and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
