ANTICIPATION, IT'S SLOW GOOD
A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS
Hi everyone, I'm asking for your help to raise funds for the time I invest in this site and its operational costs. So far it's been a struggle and donations are 50 percent less than at this point last year. I realize times are tough, and we are all feeling the pinch. That's a big reason why this is a no pay site. Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. That way, we can keep things rolling as they have for more than 12 years. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. So again, if you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation to support TSwails today. Thanks for your time and loyalty, TS
STILL GRINDING...
To no one's surprise, the AWSSI (Accumulated winter season snowfall index) is in the tank here in the central Midwest. Winter weather has significant societal impacts ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question “How severe has the winter been?” does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season. While the NC United States are having one of their mildest winters on record, the south is experiencing one of its all-time worst. Go figure.
Here's a close-up view of the index, and you can see not until you reach central Illinois can you find a spot that's even having an average winter.
In Mason City, Iowa, THE AWSSI is currently at an all-time low of 422, far below the record high for February 6th of 1435.
Here in good old Dubuque, we are just above the record low of 330 with an index of 356
Here's the seasonal snow accumulation around the region. The black hole over Iowa and northern Illinois sticks out like a sore thumb.
My local area has experienced only 10-25 percent of its normal winter snowfall to date. The deficit in Dubuque reaches 21 inches today with the Quad Cities nearing 20.5.
Again, you can clearly see a broad area from Nebraska to Iowa and northern Illinois where snow has been really hard to come by. Precipitation of any kind has been a tough get. In Dubuque, 0.14 inches has fallen over the past 42 days.
So when I say, I am anxious to get some action, I mean I'm chomping at the bit. The anticipation of something exciting related to snow is killing me. It reminds me of a 1976 add for HEINZ Ketchup, where the little girl and her grandmother stare lovingly at the ketchup bottle, gently patting and stroking it waiting for a dollop to fall on their hamburger. It was said to be, "slow good". Carly Simon sang her anticipation song. A great spot from the old days of my youth!
Tonight, I'm just like that kid, trying to squeeze snow out of a turnip. What a tough year, even when teleconnections are favorable for storms and threats of snow, it's just a dang struggle, and it appears it will remain that way through at least February 12th. The latest GFS shows a minimum of 5 snow systems the next 2 weeks that all find a way to weave a track around us. At the end of the run, the model shows this for total snow through the 18th.
Here's a closer view of the output, and I find what I'm seeing quite remarkable. It's like a rock is parked over Iowa, diverting everything north, south, or east of the area. That's how it's been all winter. You would think at some point the odds would break in our favor. I really believe we will do several inches better than what's shown.
In fact, the EURO still shows some hope with its last run producing this for snow. It all falls from the 12th through the 21st in 3 different disturbances. Some massive amounts are shown near the baroclinic boundary from EC Illinois into northern Indiana, up to 32 inches. That's a year worth of snow for most of my area. I will believe that when I see it. It still hurts that it's only 3–4 hours away in theory.
How does this extreme difference in snow exist? It's all in the amount of phasing and positioning of the jet stream. On the left, the GFS has a split flow, with energy consolidated in Canada and NW Arizona. It forces the snow south. The EURO is not perfectly phased, but is far more consolidated with the energy. That allows moisture and snow to get deeper into the Midwest. It also looks colder with that vortex pressing toward the Minnesota border.
How do you know which solution is best. It's just like ketchup, personal taste and preference (and in my case what's on sale). Seriously, I'm trying to weigh which solution makes the most sense, but I can't say which brand is better than the other. Actually, both models have been fairly consistent the past 2 days. Until we get data that's better sampled, it will continue to be a tough call unless one flips to the other. A work in progress.
What I can say for sure is Friday will be a quiet day with highs of 30-34 with some passing clouds. By Saturday, a weak wave of low pressure passes to the south. In doing so, it provides enough warm air advection to provide us with cloudy skies and crisp temperatures. The warm advection may kick up some areas of light snow in the north, and perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle south. Moisture is going to be very limited with forcing split to the north and south around us, again. Anything that falls won't amount to much. The snowy side of the system just grazes my northern tier of counties, where a dusting or so is possible. Here's what models are suggesting for snow from that disturbance Saturday. Missed again!
The EURO
The GFS
Quiet, uneventful weather returns for Sunday and Monday on the back side of the system. Sunday looks fresh, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 20s. Monday, return flow should boost readings into the low to mid 30s. Then we wait and see what sort of phasing we have to deal with Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow is possible with it. Without, it probably rolls right around the rim of the black hole and falls further south.
I think I will leave it there for now and grab an ice-cold ketchup, make that beverage. I had a friend in grade school, Denny Hartvigsen on 13th avenue, who would actually chug ketchup right out of the bottle. I would just stare at him in awe until the day he gagged and threw up. He said it was bad ketchup. I said it was bad judgment! He went on to be a plumber and lived in Alaska. I don't think he ever married. That is the straight-up truth. Roll weather and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
