ANOTHER DAY IN JANUARY
The holidays are behind us, and we're deep in the dog days of winter. Frankly, there's not a great deal to look forward to but spring. Unfortunately, we've got a ways to go before longer days and more direct sunshine begin to have an impact. But, we are a third of the way through January and once we put it behind us, the light at the end of the tunnel begins to steadily brighten. Keep slogging my friends, keep slogging.
If nothing else, we haven't been besieged by howling snowstorms and brutally cold temperatures. In fact, we managed to avoid another big winter storm that dumped as much as 14 inches of snow in Arkansas. Even NW Mississippi picked up as much as 7 inches. Take a look at the snow that fell Friday just to our southeast.
Eastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and the northern half of Arkansas got smoked with 6-14 inch totals widespread.
My area was spared once again, with most spots seeing just enough to track a cat. Along and south of a line from Keokuk to Burlington and on to Princeton, amounts up to an inch were noted, just enough to make for some slick travel. A late addition Friday evening were snow showers that dropped up to an inch of snow in isolated locations.
Saturday looks to be a quiet seasonal January day, with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s under a mix of sun and clouds. With fairly light winds, it actually should be a decent mid-winter day. Good for ice fishing.
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CLIPPED BY A CLIPPER
Saturday night and early Sunday, a clipper rumbles across southern Minnesota. The track is not optimal for snow locally, but along the nose of the warm advection wing, a band of light snow should develop in eastern Iowa and ripple NE. It's possible a bit of freezing rain or drizzle mixes in toward the tail end of the precipitation. Overall, snow appears to be the dominant precipitation type. With a dry slot punching into the area, what snow develops ends very early Sunday, resulting in dry conditions the remainder of the day. With meager moisture and the quick movement of snow, accumulations should be minimal, generally 1/2 inch or less, although a couple models indicate up to an inch in spots up north. That is the worst case scenario, and it looks like that would be difficult to accomplish at this point in time. I just don't see this amounting to much with the track of the surface low well to the north. Here's what models are pointing to in terms of snow accumulations late Saturday night.
The EURO
The GFS, as usual, amounts are inflated and very unlikely.
The HRRR
The 3k NAM
The 12K NAM
By Sunday evening, a strong cold front containing Arctic air pivots southeast across the region. This will jack up the NW winds and send temperatures tumbling. After highs Sunday of 28-33, readings will be in the range of 6-12 from north to south Monday morning, with wind chills pushing 10 below north. Tuesday morning looks very fresh, with lows around zero in the north and wind chills of 10 to 17 below in most areas.
The cold lifts out the middle of next week, allowing for a nice 3-day warm-up after that. As you can see, it does not last long as another blast of Arctic air drives lows a bit below zero January 22nd. Then the pattern rinses and repeats itself with another mini thaw, January 24th.
This up and down pattern has been something we've seen plenty of this winter. What we haven't seen, is a set-up that allows deep moisture and potent storms outside a brief stretch in late October and early November. Going back to September 1st in Dubuque, 7.62 inches of the 8.54 inches of precipitation measured, came in just 8 of the 132-day period. In other words, 90 percent of our precipitation the past 4.3 months has occurred on just 8 days. Throw those 8 days out, and the other 124 days have produced less than an inch of rain (.92"). Again, that's compared to 7.62 on the other 8 days. That is quite unusual and what I would classify as weird.
Anyway, the coming pattern is not looking good for precipitation with a W/NW flow aloft. The EURO shows this over the next 15 days ending January 25th
Much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley is way below normal on amounts.
Needless to say, from the standpoint of storms, the next 2 weeks look BORING. The last few months have truly sucked eggs...flat out. Have a delightful Saturday and as always, roll weather...TS
