AN UGLY DUCKLING...
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SO LONG JANUARY...
Winter is far from over, but when you can look January in the eye and say, "so long, I'll see you next year", you are over the hump. So it is that today marks the last day of the month, and we are off and running into February. Something else to be excited about (if you are not of fan of snow) is that the precipitation most of us will see is coming in the form of rain. Despite our storm tracking in the traditional "sweet spot" for snow, temperatures are too warm for anything more than a brief mix or transition to snow near its conclusion. A few degrees colder and much of the region at a 10:1 ratio would end up with 5–10 inches of the white stuff. So even when we are in that rare position when we get the right track, proper forcing, and moisture, it's still too warm to snow. Go figure.
So, for now, the snow drought continues. Aside from a small patch of snow in Kansas, there is currently no snow on the ground from St. Cloud to St Louis (a distance of 625 miles and a 10-hour trip road trip).
Here are a few of the snow departures around the Midwest as of January 29th. These have grown to more than 18 inches in Dubuque and the Quad Cities as of Friday.
Precipitation until today, has been extremely sparse in January. Through Thursday the 30th, the Iowa Mesonet shows this for January totals. Northern and southern Iowa have really had a tough time scaring up a rain or snow shower. January is typically not a wet month due to limited moisture availability, but even this is impressive. The most reported in the whole state through yesterday was .44" inches.
Going back to September 1st, these are the rainfall deficits that have accumulated. EC and SE Iowa have racked up some big departures, with deficits of 4 to 6.5 inches are shown.
Clearly we need some precipitation so what falls today is good, the issue is how much can get into the ground with frost depths down around 12–18 inches. I'm afraid a lot of what falls is going to run-off. Additionally, some rivers are frozen, and the rain combined with temperatures above freezing, will make ice jams possible. The Wapsi and Rock rivers are the usual suspects in situations like this. One thing is for sure, the damp, dreary conditions will make for a crummy day, one that I would classify as an ugly duckling.
One spot that may avoid most of the rain is the far north. For several days this idea has been suggested by the EURO, 10k GEM, and HRRR. If you look at the satellite loop below, you can see how clouds struggled to advance into northern Iowa and my counties beyond HWY 30. Lots of sunshine was noted north of there, indicating the dry air in place that's going to create a sharp northward edge to the evolving rain shield.
A lead impulse, early Thursday, just grazed my southern counties with some light showers. What eventually goes on to produce the bulk of our rain are the clouds pinwheeling over the Texas Panhandle Thursday evening. That energy drifts northeast, creating a deformation band that cuts across Iowa and northern Illinois Friday. The big challenge I see is determining where the band of heavier rain sets up, and how far north does the rain shield reach?
One conflicting theme that stands out is the fact the hi-resolution CAMS (convective allowing models) are picking up on the dry air promoting a drier solution over the north than the operational models such as the EURO and GFS. Additionally, the more southerly track of the CAMS puts the heaviest band of rain (1.00 to 1.25 inches) south of I-80, while the GFS and EURO dump it further north between I-80 and HWY 30. I'll show the difference with the CAMS and their totals first.
The HRRR
The 3k NAM
The WRF (ARW)
In contrast, here's the operational runs of the EURO and GFS that are further north.
The EURO
The GFS
The national blend of models is a compromise, but might still be too far north on the rain shield by 20 miles or so. For what it's worth, I think my northern tier of counties sees little if any in the way of rain.
However it shakes out, Friday will still be an ugly duckling of a day with chilly, damp conditions and areas of fog. The worst of it should occur south of HWY 30 where the more substantial precipitation falls with brisk NE winds of 15-25 mph.
Once the system exits late Friday, precipitation chances look minimal through next Tuesday. A Minnesota based clipper will bring an outside chance of a shower late Saturday night in the far north near HWY 20. Otherwise, the clipper serves to send another thrust of very mild air into the region Sunday, with highs back in the 50s. Here's what the EURO is advertising.
Some spots in NC Iowa will end up close to 30 degrees above normal.
Mild weather is expected to dominate the pattern the next 7 days through February 7th, with the week one temperature anomaly on the EURO ensemble means significantly above normal.
Week two has a far colder look, with its 7-day anomalies flipping to below normal.
What's interesting is that the PNA remains negative week 2 (just as it was in week 1) but it's colder across the northern tier of the nation.
A couple factors are likely driving the cool down. One is the EPO diving soundly into negative territory. So even though the mean trough is over the west, the EPO is allowing the density of the cold air in SW Canada to push and force it E/SE into the northern half of the country.
Another teleconnection which may be influencing the EPO to turn negative is the Madden Julien Oscillation (MJO), cycling out of the mild phases of 4 through 6 into phase 7 and eventually 8. In February, 8 is a cold signal. The timing of the various teleconnections are a bit off, so there are some contradictory signals regarding how this unfolds.
That said, the EURO points to the cold arriving by the morning of February 11th when it has lows that look like this.
And wind chills are even worse. Winter is far from dead, at least in terms of cold.
Snowfall is another story, it would be easy to give up on it the way things have been going, but if indeed we get back into the colder pattern shown, there's a fighting chance. As for now, I sure don't see anything worth a hoot before February 8th at the earliest. Have a stellar Friday despite the January rain. Roll weather...TS
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