A WALK ON THE DRY SIDE

I make no bones (or apologies) about the fact I am not a fan of boring weather. I like me some action! Unfortunately, for me, there are times when we get into situations where the long wave pattern gets locked into a position that severely restricts moisture and the potential for storms. From the looks of things, that is where our weather is headed for much of the next 2 weeks. Outside a couple pretty good temperature swings, things are going to be on the slow side.

Take a look at the 2-week rainfall departures on the EURO ensemble control ending September 8th. Not only is it dry here, much of Canada and the United States (aside from the Gulf and the SE.) are high and dry.

A closer inspection of the EURO ensemble control shows much of my area racking up deficits of 1.75 to 2.00 inches during the coming 2 week stretch.

Adding extra confidence to this long range trend is the deterministic GFS, which has a very similar look as the EURO. It's quite rare over a 15-day period to have so much agreement over a such a large part of the continent.

The individual ensemble members of the EURO (comprised of 51 solutions) is shown below. In the bottom panel, the mean of the members shows .25 inches in the Quad Cities through September 18th. The control however is far lower with a total of just .03 inches.

As I mentioned, the EURO ensemble produces 51 forecasts. One of these is known as the control forecast and is produced with the best available data and unperturbed models. I prefer to use that, as the other 50 are each produced with slight perturbations of initial conditions and of the models. Taken together, the forecasts become the ensemble, which shows the range of possible outcomes and the likelihood of their occurrence.

Below, in the faint blue lines, you can see all 51 solutions on the precipitation plumes through September 18th. 7 solutions indicate precipitation totals of more than 1/2 inch. One is as high as 1.65 inches. These are what we call outliers, they are unlikely and tend to skew the total higher than is likely. Averaging everything out, we get the mean of .25". That is indicated by the green dotted line below. The single "control" (with the best data) indicated by the dotted blue line, shows just .03 inches. Look at the majority of members clustered closer to that amount. I usually roll with the control of the EURO

Another factor which argues against much in the way of rain, especially this time of year, is the lack of CAPE (convective available potential energy). The ensemble never shows CAPE reaching more than 195 j/kg the next 2 weeks. We have had days this summer where CAPE was more than 5,000 j/kg. The low levels of CAPE shown equate to minimal amounts of moisture/water vapor. The bottom line is that instability necessary for thunderstorms is negligible, keeping those big 1-2 inch rains out of the picture.

One of the few chances of rain comes Thursday evening, when a sharp trough digs into the Midwest and closes off over the Great Lakes. It sends a fairly strong cold front into the region that provides the forcing for showers and a few rumbles of thunder. Despite the strength of the cool air, moisture is a bit low with dew points in the low to mid 60s, which again should keep amounts to a minimum.

Ahead of the front, slightly warmer weather returns Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. A more substantial jump is expected Thursday, with a pre-frontal draw of southerly winds sending highs into the low to mid 80s. A far more summery day to be sure.

THE BIG COOL-DOWN...

Behind the front, a healthy drop in temperatures and humidity can be expected Friday as brisk north winds usher in fall-like air. Highs Friday are likely to be confined to the upper 60s north to the low to mid 70s south before readings taper off later in the afternoon. Instability cumulus is also likely Friday afternoon with steep lapse rates potentially generating some spotty light showers. Friday night readings crash as the core of the cold crosses the region. 850 temperatures are shown dipping as low as 4 degrees C. That is chilly. Clouds will clear, and then how cold it gets comes down to how fast winds diminish. The GFS is most robust, showing lows Saturday morning in the range of 40 north to 46 south. The EURO is several degrees warmer with a bit more of a breeze. We'll know more on that in the next 24–36 hours. No matter what. Friday night will be brisk at those high school football games. Here's what the GFS shows for lows by Saturday morning. Wind chills early Saturday could be down in the mid to upper 30s in the north. Yikes....

The remainder of Saturday should see a fair amount of sun, but temperatures will struggle for early September, with highs struggling to get out of the range of 64 north to 69 south.

Sunday promises to be another fall-like day, with plenty of sunshine and highs of 69-73.

Beyond that, the upper air flow flattens, allowing more of a westerly component to our winds. That shuttles dry but warmer weather back into the pattern that sends fall packing. I look for a mild period to develop the middle of next week that lasts through the following weekend. Not only will it be warm in the 80s, it looks very much on the dry side. The Climate Prediction Center shows the summery pattern in the long term September 11-17th.

Sorry, I got a little nerdy and windy on this post, but it's out of my system for now. Have a splendid day and roll weather...TS

PEOPLE LOVE IT. OUR AIRBNB IS A MOST LOVED GUEST FAVORITE!

ANOTHER 5-STAR REVIEW....thanks Myriam

AIRBNB has rated my renovated church in Galena A GUEST FAVORITE, A MOST LOVED home according to visitors. Check out some of our reviews and get in on the flexible deals we have available below.

Christa-Monument, Colorado

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It was a magical place for our family to celebrate Christmas!

Kelly

What a gem! The Little White Church exceeded our expectations. It was the perfect spot to meet up with another couple to relax and explore nearby Galena. We enjoyed the beautiful great room with its fireplace and amazing views of the rolling countryside. (The photos simply can't do it justice). The charming church/home was quiet, well appointed and clean. And Carolyn was proactive with instructions and a terrific communicator. We will definitely be back!

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MAKE US AN OFFER...

What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Let us assist in finding a time and price that works for you. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb

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Now that it's vacation season, there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.

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Hope to see you soon,

Terry and Carolyn

7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA

1. It’s Steeped In History

2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America

3. The Restaurants Are Amazing

4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors

5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

7. Did I Mention The Shopping?