A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION

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A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION

It's officially spring and all things considered, the season got off to a respectable start around the region. We managed to get a little extra sunshine in our skies to send highs into the low to mid 50s. Averages are around 48-52 so we were above that threshold. Considering where we were a couple days ago it was a much improved brand of weather. A step in the right direction!

We remain in an active weather pattern that will provide us with some midweek precipitation chances as well as some temperature fluctuations. One thing about this energetic pattern, it has really had a positive impact on the severe drought that has impacted much of the western U.S. and has encroached on parts of the Midwest as well. Take a look at the drought monitor October 25th going into winter. Much of the nation was in abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions.

Over the past 24 weeks look at the remarkable reduction in reds and oranges, especially west of the Rockies. California which was plagued with widespread extreme to exceptional drought across it's central interior is completely drought free. The Ohio and Mississippi River valleys have improved significantly as well.

The darker shades of green and blue indicate where the most dramatic improvements have occurred the past 24 weeks.

Get a load of these images The first image shows Lake Oroville in Butte County, California's second-biggest reservoir. The image was taken Dec. 21. The lake was at just 29% of its capacity.

Less than 3 months later after a prolific wet period the lake was at 75 percent compacity, a typical March level.

In the peaks of the Sierra Mountains it has been a banner year for snow. Mammoth mountain has seen 618 inches at the base and 780 at the summit,

Below a man shovels amidst walls of snow 30 feet high. It's like a snow globe!

The snow is so deep that it has buried ski lifts that typically stand 35 feet off the surface.

When the snow melts it will replenish even more of the lakes and reservoirs of California and the SW in general. What a fascinating reversal of fortunes, something not typically seen in La Nina winters when the heaviest precipitation is confined more to the Pacific Northwest.

MARCH MADNESS AT MY NEW AIRBNB IN GALENA CLICK THE BANNER FOR MORE.

WHAT'S COMING DOWN THE PIKE...

Closer to home, our next weather maker is two phased, the first wave comes late Tuesday afternoon and night when some light showers are expected to develop out of the southwest flow that dominates the central U.S. into the weekend. Forcing for this event is limited so rain amounts are likely to be light, 1/10th of an inch or less. The greatest coverage should be over the southeast half of my area.

We should see a short break between that and the next round of energy slated to arrive late Wednesday or Wednesday night. By then a nearly stationary boundary is laid out over the southeast tip of Iowa. A wave ripples along the front generating an over-running rain event. The EURO remains consistent with its more robust rain solution, particularly over the SE half of my area. The GFS again keeps the rain very much on the lighter side. For now I would give an edge to the EURO with the idea its too high on totals. Hopefully models come to some kind of resolution soon. Here's what guidance is indicating for rain totals from the two waves combined. The majority of this occurs Wednesday night.

The EURO

The GFS

The EURO brings another system Friday night that could bring rain or snow. The GFS keeps if further southeast. I will keep that one on the back burner for now. It's really tough for models to define the position and timing of systems when the pattern is this noisy with so much overall energy. While I'm at it, I will mention a more formidable storm is possible later in the weekend or early next week. Bang, bang, bang.

As you would expect the long range ensembles are indicating above normal precipitation the next 2 weeks. The EURO is the wettest this far north. Here are projected totals

The EURO ensemble control ending April 4th

The GFS ensemble

The Canadian GEM ensemble.

Each of the above models indicates several inches of snow as well during that period. A trend to watch.

As far as temperatures go I currently don't have much in the way of good news. Readings are expected to remain cooler than normal into early April. The GFS ensemble indicates this for temps the next 16 days in Cedar Rapids. Normal highs start at 49 the 21st and are up to 56 by April 5th. I see very few above normal days and a limited range in temperatures reflecting the wet pattern which is comprised of considerable cloudiness and periods of precipitation.

I'm hoping the pattern breaks warmer around April 10th. The EURO weeklies show hope with above average readings over the 7 day period April 13th-20th.

Ridging is indicated over the Ohio Valley at that time which could deliver that type of warmth. Let's hope so!

It's always nice to end on a positive note and that's what was able to come up with. Hope you enjoyed the first day of spring. Roll weather...TS