A SCREAMING MEME...

PLEASE CONSIDER A DONATION

A FINAL PERSONAL APPEAL

Hi all. I'm still hoping for $663 dollars to reach my fund-raising goal (I'm 96% there). Personally, I'm appealing to those of you who appreciate the reliability, honesty, accuracy, and knowledge of the site, to consider a donation, (especially if it helps with financial decisions related to your business). If you fall into any of these categories and find value in the effort put forth, I humbly ask that you make a $20 dollar investment into this unique and reliable product.

Thanks so much, T. Swails

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BIG BERTHA...

She's wound up and in a bad mood. Big Bertha is coming to town, and she's not about to let you forget she's back when she checks in Wednesday morning.

Here's what the big gal looks like on the GOES satellite Tuesday night. Thunderstorms are cranking over the deep south, while blizzard conditions are developing in north-central Iowa. The lady has got some real girth.

Here's the 28.95 inch surface low that's about to kick east of my area on its way to SE Wisconsin.

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While things will be relative quiet to start Wednesday, thanks to a pronounced dry slot and our proximity to the storm's eye, that won't last long as powerful N/NW winds spread across the region Wednesday morning. Wrap around moisture will develop additional rain that quickly changes to snow from west to east.

At 6:00am the freezing line necessary for snow at 850mb (0 C.), is on Cedar Rapids.

By 9:00am its reached the Quad Cities.

Finally, at noon it's punching a ticket to Chicago. By then, any precipitation falling in my area will be snow.

High winds will usher in the colder air and have the potential to reach 50mph+ in the afternoon. Notice though at 6:00am the winds from the Quad Cities to Rockford are only in the 5-10 mph range. With readings in the 40s, the day gets off to a fine start.

But, Bertha is on the way and by noon winds of 40-50 mph+ are crossing eastern Iowa.

By then, another round of precipitation is rotating around the circulation and showers quickly change to snow. This coincides with the arrival of the high winds, meaning conditions could get a bit rough in the open country, especially over my northern counties.

Amounts of snow are not going to be great, but areas NW of the Quad Cities could see 1 to perhaps 2 inches, especially NW of a line from Iowa City to near Dubuque. With temperatures near freezing, mild ground temperatures, and all the wind, it will be difficult to even measure amounts. Visibility could be low at times where an inch or two of snow falls, especially in the open country. It's quite possible that some areas may go under winter weather advisories. That's on top of high wind warnings that are already posted for eastern Iowa. Here's what various models are suggesting for snow totals.

The GFS

The 3k NAM

The 12k NAM

The EURO

The SREF Short range ensemble forecast

The HRRR

In all honesty, this is a very tough snowfall forecast for multiple reasons and confidence is not any better than low to moderate on amounts. We'll know more as events unfold regarding mesoscale details early Wednesday that will drive results. Most of the snow that falls ends by evening, and winds start to taper off some after that.

After a quiet chilly day Thursday, snow chances return for Friday. The GFS is really pushing a swath of 2-4 inch totals, mainly north of I-80. The EURO is much lighter, with any amounts generally an inch of less. I supect the GFS is on the high side. I'll deal with that after old Bertha waves good bye!

That's where I will leave it for now. Remember, conditions will change rapidly through morning as cold, wind, and some snow blow through the area. Hold onto your hat and do not fear the screaming meme! Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS