A LITTLE DIPPITY DO...
A little cooling took place across the area Tuesday thanks to an E/SE component to our winds. The most notable drop occurred in the far north where highs held in the low 50s. Further south readings again cracked 60 from about I-80 south. A late afternoon break in the clouds allowed me an opportunity to enjoy a stunning sunset along the banks of the Mississippi here in Dubuque. I snapped this image around 4:30 from my deck as a small barge approached the railroad bridge. In the background you can see some of the downtown buildings. Rest assured, this produced a powerful moment of reflection and appreciation.
The boundary that brought the cooler weather to the north Tuesday has since stalled to the south. During the day Wednesday, a wave of low pressure will ripple along it passing over the SE tip of Iowa on its way to Chicago. In advance of it overnight, the low level jet has acted on some warm air advection associated with the disturbance and popped some showers. Most of these occurred in the NW third of the region, north of the warm front and its forcing. They should be pretty well gone by daybreak but pockets of drizzle and sprinkles may remain through morning. As Wednesday wears on and the low passes, additional showers should develop and advance SE through the rest of the region by the afternoon hours, although these should be lighter. Here's what models suggest for rain potential through early evening. Overall, totals have come in higher than 24 hours ago when this system looked to be weaker and drier.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
The 12k NAM
The HRRR
One issue that will be challenging is Wednesday's temperatures. The warm front is a strong one and its placement over the far southeast creates a large temperature spread from NW to SE. At 1:00pm the HRRR shows upper 40s in the north to 70 or better near Burlington and points further south. Macomb is shown at 77 with readings around St. Louis in the low to mid 80s! Unfortunately, most of the area (save the far south) remains in the cold sector of the storm.
Behind the system seasonal air takes over through Saturday with highs in the upper 40s north to the low to mid 50s south. Dry air will be firmly back in place and dry weather is on the table. The GFS does indicate a chance of showers Sunday but the EURO remains dry and I like that solution better.
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMTH...
The big news is that this dippity do in temperatures does not last long. The jet reverts to a southwest flow and it's game on for another round of well above normal temperatures next week. In fact, by the middle of next week, normal highs are in the mid to upper 40s areawide. At the very least, we should see several days where highs crack 60 next week and if things go well, perhaps a day or two in the upper 60s to near 70. Here's what CPC shows for temperatures in its 8-14 day outlook.
850 temps in some parts of the upper Midwest reach 10-13 degrees C. which is about 14 above the norms. Look at that paint bomb over the NC United States.
This is what the GFS shows for snowfall over the 10 day period November 11-21st, essentially nothing. That combined with the coming warmth means the majority of the nation east of the Rockies will have no snow on the ground November 21st.
That was not the case last year. Check out the difference in snow depth between what's expected this November 21st (above) to what was on the ground last November 21st below.
Now, if you are one of those who embraces winter, I will close with this. It is the 500mb jet the evening of December 22nd. Check out the 498mb vortex over eastern Lake Superior. If that comes, so too will the bitter cold.
These are the associated 850 temperature anomalies, as low as 18 C. below normal.
46 day snow ending December 22nd would certainly whiten things up! It would also be a huge change from what I showed was likely to be on the ground above November 21st.
That's where I will leave things for now. With all variety involved you should certainly be able to find something you like. Roll weather...TS
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