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SO SWEET...
After a long winter, there is nothing like the first widespread day of 70 degree highs. The maximum of 71 in the Quad Cities was the first time in 131 days (October 30th), a 70 degree temperature was attained, (71 was the high to be exact).
Cedar Rapids clocked on Monday with a record high of 74 degrees. That beat the old mark of 72 which was set in 1894. Steve Gottschalk of Lowden, with a 74 beat his old record by 6 degrees. His humidity was 24 percent. He also mentioned that 3 days previous, he had 3 inches of snow and a high of 36. Always a man with plenty of statistics, he noted that in 1923 Olin (in EC Iowa), had 41 inches of snow in March. Belle Plaine had 33 and Davenport nearly 25. I doubt any of us see a March like that again.
Here's the Temperature departures from Monday afternoon. Spots in Iowa were up to 34 degrees warmer than normal. That little sliver from NC Iowa to Minneapolis, was where departures were only 15-19 above normal due to the cooling effects from residual snow cover from last week's blizzard.
MORE WHERE THAT CAME FROM
Readings won't be quite so balmy Tuesday due to a cool front that slips quietly in from the north before getting sheared quickly off to the east. Highs will range from the low 50s north to the low 60s far south.
As you can see, that's a good 10-18 degrees cooler from south to north. Even so, that's still above normal. Plenty of sunshine is expected.
Come Wednesday, a powerful 500mb trough digs into the western U.S. and that could mean a stormy end to the week.
However, before that happens, temperatures are set to climb once again. Highs are expected to be back into the range of 60-65 Wednesday and 65-70 Thursday. Sunny, dry conditions are in the cards both days.
Friday, while far from a slam dunk, has the potential to bring the first severe thunderstorms of the season to the region. Here's the culprit, another intense low pressure that the ensemble members of the GFS show tracking into WC Iowa Friday evening. Attached to it will be a strong cold front/dry line that has the potential to fire up active storms late Friday afternoon or evening.
No matter what happens, the intensity of the storm is going to fuel powerful winds. In fact, one member of the GFS ensembles shows a 961mb low. Converted to inches, that is a central pressure of 28.37 inches. That is nuclear. I very much doubt we get anywhere close to that. Remember that in last week's blizzard in central Iowa, the pressure in the Quad Cities dropped to 980mb, the third lowest in history. 961mb would literally shatter all records. I don't see anything that extreme.
However, even if it turns out closer to 975mb., that is another ripper. I would expect to see 55-60+ mph gusts. The GFS shows them pushing 60 at 10 meters Friday.
In advance of the cold front, strong southerly winds will send highs into the mid to upper 70s, setting numerous high temperature records. Moisture is not expected to be exceptional, or a significant severe weather event would be likely. Even so, dew points are shown reaching the mid 50s and water vapor pools just over an inch ahead of the incoming front.
That will be enough, with the record highs expected, to push CAPE (instability) to respectable levels for the first half of March. That's fuel for thunderstorms.
Another key element of forcing for severe storms is a dry line that is very evident punching into SC Iowa. PWATS in eastern Iowa are over an inch, while in SW Iowa they are down to .28 inches. If storms are going to fire, they should pop on the nose of the dry punch towards evening.
That is precisely what the GFS has been showing for a couple of days now. Here's the latest run which is slower and a bit further west. While a few discreet supercells could form initially, it's likely these grow upscale into a linear squall line, something like what is shown below. This scenario would likely mean the tornado threat (if it develops) would be greatest when storms initiate further west in central Iowa. After that, wind and hail would become the dominate severe weather concern. I will qualify that statement by saying lines in this type of environment can produce QLCS tornadoes (quasi linear convective systems) that generate spin ups within the line. These types of tornadoes are generally short-lived and weaker EF0 to EF2. Tonight's runs did not do much to impress me with widespread severe potential over the majority of my region. It's early and that could still change.
It's very difficult at this distance to know the mesoscale details and thus confidence is high the ingredients for severe weather will exist Friday, but low on when, where, and how much. As I write this, SPC does show my area in a 15 percent risk 4 days ahead of the event. In other words, there is a 15% chance of severe weather within any point in my area. That may seem low, but at this distance that is actually a decent risk assessment. It's even greater further south, where shear and moisture will be more advantageous.
Meantime, there is plenty of time to monitor developments and see where this all goes. One thing is for sure, after a cooler day today, temperatures are on their way back up later this week. Spring has sprung, for now. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
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