A BRIEF THAW AHEAD....

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A lot of January has been rather frigid... most of the month has been spent below freezing and therefore before normal.

Temperatures have been running 5 to 8 degrees below normal. The last few days of the month won't be too shabby. We got into the 20s and 30s on Saturday. Sunday will be a little cooler in the wake of a weak cold front:

A ridge will build in early next week which will pull in some warmer air and melt some more of the snowpack:

Temperatures will be above freezing Monday:

And Tuesday:

We'll want to enjoy it before things change midweek.

The warmth is coming ahead of the next winter storm that will impact the Upper Midwest.

As Terry mentioned in his last post there has been a southern trend with this system. One factor is dry air on the north side with a Canadian high pressure system. Another factor is the energy not phasing or coming together as a strong low pressure system, which would tend to favor a southern path. I spoke with Terry and he thinks this all goes south leaving most of us with a nothing burger. If there is any snow(1-2") it would be over far SE Iowa and WC Illinois. His suggestion is to disregard the GFS

Here's the latest snowfall output from the models starting with the GFS:

The Euro:

Regardless of where the snow falls much colder air moves in behind it. Temperatures will be back in the teens on Wednesday:

And it gets colder on Thursday:

We'll continue to keep an eye on the latest trends with the storm as we're still several days out. Things can still change some!

RK

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