A BOUT WITH SPRING....

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A BOUT WITH SPRING...

Many of us got to the big 6-0 on Sunday as spring starts to take hold.

Temperatures will take a jump toward 70 on Monday:

A cold front Tuesday will knock temperatures back slightly. However, temperatures will remain springy and above normal. Here are the temperatures through the week for Cedar Rapids:

And the Quad Cities:

The week will be quiet until Friday. A powerful low pressure system will move into the central U.S. and will lead to snow to the northwest of it. My local area will be in the warm sector where strong winds, rain, and even severe

weather will be a concern:

Severe weather has some basic requirements and it can be summed up by SLIM -- shear, lift, instability, and moisture.

This storm will create immense amounts of wind shear (spin in the atmosphere - winds increasing in speed/changing direction with height). 20 knots of shear is sufficient for storms with 40 knots of shear typically the marker for severe weather.

There are indications of 60 knots+ of wind shear, which can often be a major driver for storms if the other pieces of SLIM aren't as strong. The lift is the mechanism that is leading to the storms, that being the low and warm front lifting north, and increases the strength of updrafts in the atmosphere. This can be measured with lifted index, the more negative it is the higher the instability. Here's a look at Friday afternoon:

These values are around -4 to -6 in the area, indicating large instability. The I - instability - measured by CAPE or convective available potential energy. When CAPE values are over 1000 that's typically indicative of strong to severe storms. Here's a look at Friday afternoon with sufficient instability:

One limiting factor could be M -- moisture. There is enough moisture with PWATS (precipitation water - moisture available in the atmosphere) nearing 1".

However, if storms are widespread to the south the moisture could be robbed from the northern zone of storms. As I mentioned, the strong shear could still drive storms even with lower moisture levels.

In the end - the Storm Prediction Center is monitoring a large area for severe weather on Friday:

Outside of strong storms, the system itself will produce very strong winds as it will be a strong low pressure system. Gusts could be upward of 50--60 mph:

ALL of that being said... there's still several days to watch this storm. Little changes in timing and track will change where the severe threat will be. Still something to watch in my local area...

For now, enjoy the warmth and roll weather.... and if you can spare a donation to help Terry reach his goal, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS

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