A BIT OF A DOWNER...

The month of March was a mild one around the Midwest. The National Weather Service shows temperatures in my local area were 5.5 to (8.3 degrees above average in Cedar Rapids). Moline had its 8th warmest of record, with Dubuque registering its 9th warmest. Precipitation was generally .15 to .55 inches above normal. Cedar Rapids however remained slightly below normal with a monthly deficit of .17 inches.

Going forward, daily average temperatures typically increase by as much as 1/2 a degree per day. However, we'll be headed the opposite direction locally with the establishment of NW flow in the mean storm track through mid-April. Below is the 7 day 500mb jet stream for the period April 5-April 12th. The western trough, eastern ridge configuration lends itself to the cooler pattern ahead.

These are the average daily temperature departures expected over that 7-day period. Not a pretty sight in my opinion.

It will be even colder to the east deeper into the core of the trough, with CPC (Climate Prediction Center) showing very high chances of below normal readings over the southeast. Personally, I think they are a bit optimistic showing slightly above normal readings locally.

Another likely outcome of a pattern like this is below normal precipitation. The Gulf of Mexico (our moisture source) will be shut down by Saturday, making it very difficult to get significant precipitation, with only clipper-like disturbances traveling rapidly southeast.

The EURO shows the dryness in its 10-day precipitation departures that are roughly 1 inch below normal.

This larger perspective shows the Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys in the heart of the storm track (especially the next 2-3 days) with very heavy rain and storms anticipated there.

The GFS shows rainfall amounts approaching 14 inches in Arkansas.

The Weather Prediction Center is not taking the situation lightly, and rightfully so. Potentially historic rains of 10–15 inches over a wide part of the state and surrounding region has the potential to produce catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding as well as river flooding.

This is part of the same system that pounded that area with tornadoes and severe weather Wednesday. Look what we managed to avoid, 728 combined severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. So far, 6 deaths have been attributed to the storms.

As you can see, that is the most warnings in a single day outbreak since the 2011 Super Outbreak of 2011.

All told, there were 455 reports of severe weather, 41 tornadoes and 414 reports of damaging winds or hail.

You can clearly see, on the water vapor loop of the satellite the western trough that is pouring vast amounts of moisture into the area just to our south.

If you look around the Texas Panhandle, you can see another surge of energy rounding the trough and progressing northeast. That will have impacts on my area, sending clouds across the region and some light rain Friday afternoon and evening. The area southeast of the Quad Cities could see some totals up to 1/4 inch.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

One thing that should help to keep totals light will be the intense rain and storms that fall to our south. That will likely rob some of the moisture that would otherwise get further north into the central Midwest. In fact, more tornadoes are possible Friday, especially in Arkansas where most of the state is in a moderate to enhanced risk of severe weather along with the threat of excessive rains.

This is a part of the nation that has already had more than its share of rough weather this spring. Here are the plots of all the severe weather reports so far this year. The hot spots for tornadoes really stand out.

Anyway, after a cool Friday with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, the day should end with some showers, particularly in the southeast half will that carry into the evening.

The remainder of the weekend looks dry and chilly, with highs Saturday and Sunday of 46-51. If anything, readings get even cold early next week as the NW flow amplifies, sending a stout shot of cool air into the region. At some point, I could certainly see some snow showers Monday afternoon as 850 temperatures a mile up drop to -10 to -11 C. That should create the instability necessary to get the job done. The EURO meteogram the next 2 weeks shows the core of the cold in the Quad Cities next Monday and Tuesday. They even show a low down to 22 the 8th. That's what I call a bit of a downer.

That's a wrap for a Friday. Have a sensational weekend and roll weather...TS