THE WARMTH BEFORE THE SNOW...

It was a nice, sunny, mild day Saturday across the Upper Midwest. Snow started melting away and people roamed outdoors due to the nice conditions. Even at 8 pm Saturday temperatures were running above freezing!

It will be another warm day Sunday afternoon with plenty of sunshine to start. Clouds will start to move in during the afternoon ahead of the next storm.

Temperatures will start to get knocked down some Monday as the storm system starts do move around the area.

Monday afternoon and evening there will be be rain in Missouri and Illinois, with a mix to north into Iowa. Temperatures will be slightly colder as a result.

The storm will continue to move to the east, pull down colder air and likely transition to snow in parts of the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday.

Terry already posted the snowfall outputs, but I do want to stress this storm isn't a slam dunk. The exact track and strength will determine how much snow falls and where. However, the ingredients are certainly there for a strong winter storm. Check out the upper levels - we've got a closed low and cold air along with it.

The question just lies in how much snow falls and where. The models are putting some big numbers on the table, but this far out they tend to overdo it. So here's a look just at the difference on the models using straight liquid accumulation.

Here's the European:

Wetter, more focused on eastern Iowa into Illinois. Then the GFS:

Focused in far eastern Iowa into Wisconsin. Still wet, but lower precipitation totals than European.

We'll continue to update you on the evolution of this system that may bring a long-duration snow event. In the meantime, I say enjoy Sunday's weather!

RK