After a very active couple of days, a break from the heavy rain is in sight. The pattern will remain in a bit of a holding pattern, but it should give way to drier conditions, especially Tuesday onwards Three-day rainfall (above) hit some remarkable levels for September across the area. Radar estimated across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin topped 5" across a widespread area. SEPTEMBER RAIN - DUBUQUE SEPTEMBER RAIN - QUAD CITIES Month-to-date rainfall t

While not record-breaking locally, July and August have been well on the higher end of the climatology in terms of total precipitation across the corn belt with repeated waves of severe weather and heavy rainfall. Eastern Iowa and northern Illinois are well into the top 25 years on record (since 1893) with some portions of the Chicagoland region in the top five all time. Farther east across Indiana and Ohio this stretch did in fact break records for total precipitation. What

Last week at this time I was promoting a a multi-day rainfall event that I felt had the potential to be quite significant with most areas seeing 2-5 inches of rain, locally more (7" plus) in the heaviest band. Models did a good job showing the excessive rain potential but struggled until midweek to determine where the heaviest amounts would occur. As it turned out, the stationary boundary (ring of fire) laid out over southern Iowa into central Illinois and Indiana from Tuesda

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While severe weather potential continues Tuesday, we are seeing the strong storm threat is trending down thanks to morning showers and storms that would inhibit instability for the afternoon and evening waves. High resolution model guidance including the HRRR an RRFS show scattered showers and storms Tuesday morning persisting through the early afternoon. Gusty storms and small hail are possible, but organized severe weather does not appear likely. Officially, the Storm Preci