Weather Journal

1 snow

MODOKI EL NINO COMING ON, WINTER LOOKS FEISTY...

So far so good with regards to the local weather this holiday weekend. Sunshine and mild temperatures prevailed around my area Saturday and more is expected Sunday before thunderstorm chances increase later Sunday night and Monday. Severe weather is still… Load Article

1 sept

SEPTEMBER LOOKS MILD. THEN WE FREE FALL...

I’ve been saying it for at least a month and I see no reason to back off now, September has a warm look to it. In fact, relative to average it may end up as the warmest month in about… Load Article

1 friday

NO SHORTAGE OF WEATHER...

Another downpour, another inch of rain. That was the case at the Swails ranch Thursday afternoon. A few miles down the road it was plenty more than that. The official total on the south side of the Quad City metro was 1.96″.… Load Article

1 think

UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE HOLIDAY

A rather complex scenario is setting up with regards to the holiday weekend weather. I had to break out the thinking cap for this post and to be honest, it didn’t help all that much. The forecast challenges are tied… Load Article

1 noah

IT'S ABOUT TIME! NOW AN UPDATE ON A BIG RAIN EVENT

The numbers are in and for the first time in at least 2 months (perhaps longer) we actually had a week in the Midwest with above normal temperatures. Here’s the 7 day departures for N. America. Heat in the heartland,… Load Article

Weather Journal

c gfs surface

WINTER STORM PROSPECTS INCREASING

Just got a look at the new morning data and it certainly looks like the pieces are coming together for a significant winter storm over some part of the Midwest next week. What I have noted today is that the GFS has maintained a track further south towards the Ohio Valley. The EURO has made a move in that direction but is still about 300 miles further NW and much stronger. It really bombs out a deep storm that could cause some serious chaos with wind, heavy snow, and bitter cold on the storms back side. This looks to play out next Wednesday or Thursday.

c gfs surface

I am posting the GFS snowfall forecast out 192 hours below, (as far as the model goes out) and it is just beginning to show a heavy band of snow coming out of Kansas and Missouri and headed into Iowa. Logically, this would spread northeast as the storm advances in that direction

GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST 192HRS

GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST 192HRS

The EURO goes out 240 hours so you can see it has the total snowfall for the entire event. Still some very big number in parts of the Midwest. If the EURO was showing snow off the GFS track it would be heavier further SE. Vice versa with the GFS only further NW.

c snow

c gfs heights

The bottom line is it’s very early in the game and we are going to see ebb and flow for 2-3 more days before a hard track is established. I will say this, at this early juncture there are strong signs that a significant snowstorm is in the making for some part of the Midwest next week. Roll weather!

1 wqad blog final

About Terry Swails

Terry Swails

Born and raised in Iowa City, Iowa

Terry Swails has been a television meteorologist in the Midwest since early 1977. He began his broadcasting career at KWWL-TV and has also been employed by KDUB-TV, KWQC-TV, and WQAD-TV, where he has been the prime time meteorologist for the last 5 years.

A popular fixture in Quad Cities television since 1986, Terry's passion and commitment to weather is well known. Aside from his television duties, He produces forecasts for the Quad City Times, a number of Quad City radio stations, and does work as a private consultant.

An avid storm chaser, Terry spent a week with legendary forecaster Tom Skilling in search of tornadoes in 2010. They saw their first tornado together (a violent multi vortex EF3) outside Wakita, Oklahoma. Terry and well known storm chaser Jim Reed also watched the eye of Hurricane Irene go directly overhead on the shores of Coney, Island in 2011.

With his vast knowledge of weather and unique perspective, Terry is also the author of several books. His first Superstorms was completed in 2005. He followed that up with Un-Natural disasters in 2008, and All I want to for Christmas is to see a Tornado in 2011. Terry collaborated with his wife Carolyn Wettstone on the last 2 books and has utilized her experience as a writer and former television anchor in a number of weather related projects.

Terry says he hasn't met a storm he didn't like. Tornadoes and snowstorms are his bread and butter and predicting the atmosphere is a challenge that never gets old.

Terry says this web site is a compilation of his life long love affair with weather. He points out "I put everything I would want as a meteorologist into the site. It's fun, informative, and even educational." He also adds, "I hope you find it enjoyable as well!"

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