Weather Journal

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TWISTERS DOWN, TEMPERATURES GOING UP...

As most of you are aware, the 2016 tornado season has been a quiet one compared to statistical averages. You can see in the graphic below only 764 tornadoes have been counted by SPC putting this year in the lowest… Load Article

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A TIME TO BACKPEDAL...

For the past week we have enjoyed a real break from the warm muggy weather that’s been with us much of August. Here in Cedar Rapids highs have been in the 70′s 4 of the last 6 days. I was even… Load Article

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FLOODS AND TWISTERS, JUST ANOTHER DAY...

A well organized summer storm produced some crazy weather around the Midwest Tuesday night and Wednesday.  In my local area excessive rains produced flash flooding across northeast Iowa. The hardest hit areas were Winneshiek and Allamakee counties. Up to 8.50″ of… Load Article

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ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END...

You don’t here much about it (mainly because it’s a good thing) but it has been 130 months since a category 3 or stronger hurricane has made landfall on the gulf or east coast of the United States. That’s more… Load Article

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THIS BRIDE'S GLOVES ARE COMING OFF...I'M FIGHTING!

I have a confession.  I hate to lose.  Really hate to lose.  Of course it happens.  Frequently. But it’s never easy, and I always have to see the irrevocable writing on the wall before I quit.  My latest challenge is… Load Article

Weather Journal

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WINTER STORM PROSPECTS INCREASING

Just got a look at the new morning data and it certainly looks like the pieces are coming together for a significant winter storm over some part of the Midwest next week. What I have noted today is that the GFS has maintained a track further south towards the Ohio Valley. The EURO has made a move in that direction but is still about 300 miles further NW and much stronger. It really bombs out a deep storm that could cause some serious chaos with wind, heavy snow, and bitter cold on the storms back side. This looks to play out next Wednesday or Thursday.

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I am posting the GFS snowfall forecast out 192 hours below, (as far as the model goes out) and it is just beginning to show a heavy band of snow coming out of Kansas and Missouri and headed into Iowa. Logically, this would spread northeast as the storm advances in that direction

GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST 192HRS

GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST 192HRS

The EURO goes out 240 hours so you can see it has the total snowfall for the entire event. Still some very big number in parts of the Midwest. If the EURO was showing snow off the GFS track it would be heavier further SE. Vice versa with the GFS only further NW.

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The bottom line is it’s very early in the game and we are going to see ebb and flow for 2-3 more days before a hard track is established. I will say this, at this early juncture there are strong signs that a significant snowstorm is in the making for some part of the Midwest next week. Roll weather!

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About Terry Swails

Terry Swails

Born and raised in Iowa City, Iowa

Terry Swails has been a television meteorologist in the Midwest since early 1977. He began his broadcasting career at KWWL-TV and has also been employed by KDUB-TV, KWQC-TV, and WQAD-TV, where he has been the prime time meteorologist for the last 5 years.

A popular fixture in Quad Cities television since 1986, Terry's passion and commitment to weather is well known. Aside from his television duties, He produces forecasts for the Quad City Times, a number of Quad City radio stations, and does work as a private consultant.

An avid storm chaser, Terry spent a week with legendary forecaster Tom Skilling in search of tornadoes in 2010. They saw their first tornado together (a violent multi vortex EF3) outside Wakita, Oklahoma. Terry and well known storm chaser Jim Reed also watched the eye of Hurricane Irene go directly overhead on the shores of Coney, Island in 2011.

With his vast knowledge of weather and unique perspective, Terry is also the author of several books. His first Superstorms was completed in 2005. He followed that up with Un-Natural disasters in 2008, and All I want to for Christmas is to see a Tornado in 2011. Terry collaborated with his wife Carolyn Wettstone on the last 2 books and has utilized her experience as a writer and former television anchor in a number of weather related projects.

Terry says he hasn't met a storm he didn't like. Tornadoes and snowstorms are his bread and butter and predicting the atmosphere is a challenge that never gets old.

Terry says this web site is a compilation of his life long love affair with weather. He points out "I put everything I would want as a meteorologist into the site. It's fun, informative, and even educational." He also adds, "I hope you find it enjoyable as well!"

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