Weather Journal

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JAMSTEC PLAYS HARDBALL WITH WINTER....

Before I get to the latest JAMSTEC I did want to reference the rain event that will dampen parts of the Midwest Wednesday night/Thursday. The culprit will be a mid-level short wave that weakens as it shears east across Iowa.… Load Article

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A WEEKEND BLOW TORCH?

A few days ago I told you about an Indian Summer weather pattern developing the weekend of October 25-26th. Based on the latest data the warm-up is still on and looking better than ever. Let me show you the 500mb… Load Article

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AN UPDATE ON THE OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX

Roughly 10 days ago I made a post about the October Pattern Index and its relevance regarding winter forecasts. If you missed the post here is my summation of the OPI. The October pattern index (which henceforth will be called… Load Article

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WHO NEEDS WEATHER MODELS...

We’ve all heard the stories of animals, birds, insects, acorns, and so forth acting as indicators for what a winter might be. This so called “folklore” has been observed for centuries. Some of it seems to work, some of it… Load Article

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TURNING UP THE HEAT NEXT WEEKEND...

As cold air continues to expand in coverage and intensity up north, a warming trend is looking likely over the Midwest later next week. Here’s the GFS 500mb jet stream anomaly for October 25th. You can see troughs in the… Load Article

Weather Journal

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WINTER STORM PROSPECTS INCREASING

Just got a look at the new morning data and it certainly looks like the pieces are coming together for a significant winter storm over some part of the Midwest next week. What I have noted today is that the GFS has maintained a track further south towards the Ohio Valley. The EURO has made a move in that direction but is still about 300 miles further NW and much stronger. It really bombs out a deep storm that could cause some serious chaos with wind, heavy snow, and bitter cold on the storms back side. This looks to play out next Wednesday or Thursday.

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I am posting the GFS snowfall forecast out 192 hours below, (as far as the model goes out) and it is just beginning to show a heavy band of snow coming out of Kansas and Missouri and headed into Iowa. Logically, this would spread northeast as the storm advances in that direction

GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST 192HRS

GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST 192HRS

The EURO goes out 240 hours so you can see it has the total snowfall for the entire event. Still some very big number in parts of the Midwest. If the EURO was showing snow off the GFS track it would be heavier further SE. Vice versa with the GFS only further NW.

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The bottom line is it’s very early in the game and we are going to see ebb and flow for 2-3 more days before a hard track is established. I will say this, at this early juncture there are strong signs that a significant snowstorm is in the making for some part of the Midwest next week. Roll weather!

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About Terry Swails

Terry Swails

Born and raised in Iowa City, Iowa

Terry Swails has been a television meteorologist in the Midwest since early 1977. He began his broadcasting career at KWWL-TV and has also been employed by KDUB-TV, KWQC-TV, and WQAD-TV, where he has been the prime time meteorologist for the last 5 years.

A popular fixture in Quad Cities television since 1986, Terry's passion and commitment to weather is well known. Aside from his television duties, He produces forecasts for the Quad City Times, a number of Quad City radio stations, and does work as a private consultant.

An avid storm chaser, Terry spent a week with legendary forecaster Tom Skilling in search of tornadoes in 2010. They saw their first tornado together (a violent multi vortex EF3) outside Wakita, Oklahoma. Terry and well known storm chaser Jim Reed also watched the eye of Hurricane Irene go directly overhead on the shores of Coney, Island in 2011.

With his vast knowledge of weather and unique perspective, Terry is also the author of several books. His first Superstorms was completed in 2005. He followed that up with Un-Natural disasters in 2008, and All I want to for Christmas is to see a Tornado in 2011. Terry collaborated with his wife Carolyn Wettstone on the last 2 books and has utilized her experience as a writer and former television anchor in a number of weather related projects.

Terry says he hasn't met a storm he didn't like. Tornadoes and snowstorms are his bread and butter and predicting the atmosphere is a challenge that never gets old.

Terry says this web site is a compilation of his life long love affair with weather. He points out "I put everything I would want as a meteorologist into the site. It's fun, informative, and even educational." He also adds, "I hope you find it enjoyable as well!"

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