If recent models are on their game, the Pacific fire-hose jet is set to spray the country with energy and moisture as it roars in from Asia. The 140kt jet is a real screamer and while this will kick the door open for an active 2 week period in the Midwest, it’s a god send for the drought stricken areas of the west, especially California. Check out the total precipitation forecast for California the next 16 days. 14-3″ from north to south along the coast. Inland, as much as 28″ in the mountains west of Lake Tahoe. Not only will it be wet, it will be white in the higher elevations. Widespread snows of 5-9 feet can be expected. The GFS has a 16 day max of 235.8″ (top right on the graphic) The fire-hose transports the moisture and energy east where it teams up with gulf moisture funneled up by the east coast ridge. Notice how wet the nation is. The GFS has this for 16 day total precip. The EURO only goes out 10 days but it’s mighty wet too. The GFS is showing some exceptional precipitation totals over the Ohio Valley where amounts are in the 8-10″ range. That has flooding written all over it. Along with the storminess will come some snow. There’s not a whole lot of cold to work with but enough to do the dirty work. The GFS has this for 10 day snowfall. At 16 days it shows even more. I can only get out 10 days on the EURO but it is getting interesting with the trends. Due to the fact there are multiple chunks of energy over a two week period we’re going to see models struggle with energy as we get deeper into the long range period. Thus, we’ll have to take it one storm at a time as the pattern unfolds. Bottom line, lots of potential, even more uncertainty. The first wave arrives Monday/Tuesday. More on what to look for with that system in my next post. Roll weather…TS
Terry Swails has been a television meteorologist in the Midwest since early 1977. He began his broadcasting career at KWWL-TV and has also been employed by KDUB-TV, KWQC-TV, and WQAD-TV, where he has been the prime time meteorologist for the last 5 years.
A popular fixture in Quad Cities television since 1986, Terry's passion and commitment to weather is well known. Aside from his television duties, He produces forecasts for the Quad City Times, a number of Quad City radio stations, and does work as a private consultant.
An avid storm chaser, Terry spent a week with legendary forecaster Tom Skilling in search of tornadoes in 2010. They saw their first tornado together (a violent multi vortex EF3) outside Wakita, Oklahoma. Terry and well known storm chaser Jim Reed also watched the eye of Hurricane Irene go directly overhead on the shores of Coney, Island in 2011.
With his vast knowledge of weather and unique perspective, Terry is also the author of several books. His first Superstorms was completed in 2005. He followed that up with Un-Natural disasters in 2008, and All I want to for Christmas is to see a Tornado in 2011. Terry collaborated with his wife Carolyn Wettstone on the last 2 books and has utilized her experience as a writer and former television anchor in a number of weather related projects.
Terry says he hasn't met a storm he didn't like. Tornadoes and snowstorms are his bread and butter and predicting the atmosphere is a challenge that never gets old.
Terry says this web site is a compilation of his life long love affair with weather. He points out "I put everything I would want as a meteorologist into the site. It's fun, informative, and even educational." He also adds, "I hope you find it enjoyable as well!"
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